Monday, November 29, 1999

CMIE pegs GDP growth at 9.2pc,farm output at 5.8pc this fisc

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Mumbai, June 17 (PTI) The economy is set to clock a 9.2 per cent growth this fiscal on back of a robust 5.8 per cent spike in agriculture and allied sectors, as well as a good show by industrial, services and manufacturing sectors, the leading economic think-tank CMIE said here today. "We expect gross domestic product to grow by 9.2 per cent in 2010-11 compared to a 7.4 per cent in 2009-10," the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said today in its report on the state of the domestic economy. The CMIE has been maintaining this growth forecast since March this year. This projection is a full 1 percentage point higher than the Reserve Bank projection as well as 0.7 per cent higher the government forecast. The CMIE report forecasts that the agriculture and allied sector is likely to clock a healthy 5.8 per cent growth this fiscal, subject to a good monsoon. The report notes that 5.8 per cent growth projection will be a strong recovery from the 0.2 per cent rise the farm sector recorded in the past fiscal due to the massive drought that country underwent last year-- the worst drought in the past four decades. Likewise, foodgrain production is also estimated to grow by 6 per cent compared to an estimated 6.9 per cent decline in the previous fiscal, the report added. It further estimates that while the construction sector is likely to grow by 10 per cent, the services sector is likely to expand by 9.8 per cent in the current fiscal as against 8.6 per cent in the past fiscal. The economy grew by over 9 per cent between 2005-06 and 2007-08 and it is now returning to the same level after a two-year blip, said CMIE. The report forecasts a 9.6 per cent growth for the industrial sector, including construction, this fiscal as against the 9.2 per cent clocked last fiscal. "In the fiscal 2010-11, growth in the manufacturing sector will be led by the food products segment, especially sugar and edible oil," CMIE said. It goes on to say that acceleration in consumption and investment growth in the current fiscal will contribute to a higher growth in consumer durables and capital goods output, respectively. According to CMIE, construction activities are likely to be accelerated this fiscal with projects worth Rs 6.5 lakh crore scheduled to be commissioned during the year. The spurt in capital expenditure will push up construction activities, it said, adding a robust growth in the sector is also expected on account of the projected higher growth in cement, steel and aluminium production. The trade and transport sectors will drive growth in the services sector with the real GDP from the transport segment likely to grow by 8.4 per cent this fiscal as against 6.7 per cent this sector clocked in the previous fiscal, CMIE said. PTI IAS JJ BEN.

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