President Barack Obama seems headed toward winning passage of a landmark crackdown on Wall Street, but he is not likely to score many other victories on Capitol Hill before the November U.S. congressional elections.With Democrats and Republicans jockeying for position, it's going to be tough to find much common ground on matters from immigration and climate change to deficit reduction and gays in the military.Here's a look at what Congress faces before Election Day -- and what it may actually do:FINANCIAL REFORMThere was a solid wall of Republican opposition to Obama's overhaul of the U.S. healthcare system. But a number of Republicans are expected to support his bid to toughen regulation of the financial industry. Few want to be seen as defending Wall Street, which has been tarnished by greed and recklessness.Senate Republicans maintained a three-day procedural roadblock against the measure, complaining it was inadequate or could result in even more federal bailouts.But with polls showing broad public support for the Democratic effort, they relented to permit debate on the bill crafted by Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd, a Democrat.Ethan Siegal of The Washington Exchange, a private firm that tracks Congress for institutional investors, said prospects for passage of the legislation have brightened."Our odds for final enactment into law of something that resembles about 85 percent of the Dodd bill are 70/Yes; 30/No," Siegal wrote clients. Just a few weeks ago, Siegal had it 60-40.SUPREME COURTObama is positioned to win Senate confirmation, likely by August, of a second U.S. Supreme Court nominee.He's expected to pick a successor within weeks for retiring Justice John Paul Stevens, the court's leading liberal.Potential nominees include U.S. Solicitor General Elena Kagan and at least three appeals court judges: Sidney Thomas of San Francisco, Diane Wood of Chicago and Merrick Garland of Washington, D.C.Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy, who will preside over the confirmation hearing, says he's confident any of the potential picks Obama is considering would be confirmed.Republicans could try to raise a procedural roadblock. But, as was the case with Obama's first Supreme Court nominee last year, Sonia Sotomayor, they say that's unlikely unless the pick is far outside the mainstream.CLIMATE CHANGEProspects keep worsening for Congress to approve comprehensive legislation this year to battle global warming.Senator John Kerry and Senator Joseph Lieberman are still pushing for a compromise bill to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases blamed for global warming.But they've suffered a couple significant setbacks: Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has dropped out of the effort. He says he's protesting Democrats' decision to work on immigration reform legislation this election year.Kerry had hoped that if Graham was on board, he ultimately would bring enough other Republican senators along to win passage of a climate bill this year.The other major setback is the worsening oil spill in the U.S. Gulf Coast. It has reawakened opposition to the expansion of offshore oil drilling that was to have been included in the climate bill as a way of luring Republican support.A possible wild card: the oil spill gives new impetus to moves toward clean alternative energy that the climate bill aims to foster.IMMIGRATIONSenate Democrats are pushing ahead with their uphill bid to overhaul U.S. immigration laws this year. They sense that the furor over Arizona's tough crackdown against illegal immigrants has given them a lift."Our folks were serious about immigration reform before, but Arizona has added to the urgency," a senior Democratic aide told Reuters.Perhaps. But Democrats seem to lack needed Republican support and time is running out."Not going to happen this year," said a veteran Capitol Hill lobbyist. "Perhaps they are teeing it up for next year."JOBSWell aware their own jobs are on the line, Democrats intend to keep pushing legislation to reduce the near double-digit U.S. unemployment rate.Democrats have won bipartisan passage of a number of incremental job-creation bills. But they do not have the support for major legislation, which critics would denounce as more "big government" spending that would add to the record federal deficit.DEFICIT REDUCTIONThe bipartisan presidential commission on deficit reduction held its first meeting last month. All agreed that unless the United States changes its habits, it is headed toward financial ruin.The panel has yet to produce recommendations on reducing he deficit, but Democrats and Republicans aren't likely to embrace the anticipated tough choices this election year: cutting spending, increasing taxes or a combination of both. In any case, it does not have to issue its report until Dec. 1, a month after the elections.CAMPAIGN FINANCEDemocrats introduced legislation last week to blunt the impact of a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling that allows corporations, unions and other groups to spend unlimited funds on political campaigns.The initiative, unveiled on the court's marble steps, calls for the unprecedented disclosure of money in politics.But with scant Republican support, the measure isn't expected to get very far, at least not this year."No need to get ready for a bill signing ceremony," a Democratic aide said.ARMS TREATYThe Senate Foreign Relations Committee plans to hold a series of hearings on a new arms pact between the United States and Russia.Supporters are confident the treaty, which requires 67 votes to be ratified by the 100-member Senate, will be approved. But it may take until December, following the November election.DON'T ASK, DON'T TELLObama told gay-rights hecklers in California last month that he remains in favor of ending a ban against gays serving openly in the U.S. military. "So I don't know why you are hollering," the president said.Here's why the hecklers may have been upset: With the Pentagon raising what appears to be a caution flag, Obama's fellow Democrats in Congress don't seem ready, willing or able to end the "Don't ask, don't tell" policy implemented in 1993 by then President Bill Clinton.(Additional reporting by Richard Cowan, Arshad Mohammed; Editing by David Alexander and Eric Walsh)News posted by www.newsinfoline.com
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